Deutsche Bank is seeing a strong recovery of the world economy, as according to its forecasts, after a recession of 3.2% in 2020, the world will record a combined GDP growth of 6.3% in 2021.
China, which was the only major economy to grow 2.3% year on year during the pandemic (2020), will see the largest GDP growth at 9.5% in 2021.
The recovery (after a 3.5% recession last year) is expected to be strong this year in the US as well, reaching 7%, compared to 4.6% in the eurozone, 2.3% in Japan, and 6.7% in Britain.
Of the major eurozone economies, Germany is expected to see GDP growth by 4% in 2021 (from -4.9% in 2020), compared to 6.2% (from -8.2%) in France, 4, 9% (from -8.9%) of Italy and 6.3% (from -10.8%) of Spain.
For Greece, it has not changed its forecasts, as it expects a growth rate of 6.1% in 2022 after a weak growth of around 2% this year, which, however, falls short of the estimates of economists of other international banks and foreign companies that foresee GDP growth around 3.5% to 5% this year for the Greek economy, as expectations regarding the opening of European economies from the pandemic have improved.
The German bank sees two risks that could overturn the data: the first has to do with the pandemic in case a new mutation can not be controlled or there are problems with the availability of vaccines, while the second concerns the case that rising inflation takes off forcing central banks to tighten fiscal policies.
It estimates that the ECB will be cautious about changing its monetary policy, with a smooth exit from the emergency pandemic program (PEPP) expected for 2022, while predicting that the Fed will announce a reduction in bond markets next December .
Deutsche Bank also predicts that by the end of 2021, 10-year US bond yields will be around 2.25% (compared to the zero zone in the eurozone), the euro / dollar exchange rate will also reach 1.3 to 1 by the end of the year, Brent crude oil will standat $ 70 / barrel, with gold falling to $ 1,500-1,700/ounce. At some point also by the end of the year, a 6% -10% correction of the US S&P 500 index is expected.
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