Energy a catalyst for a solution to the Cyprus problem

Could the need for energy diversification of Europe from Russian gas bring a domino effect of developments in the Eastern Mediterranean, touching on the issue of the Cyprus issue?

Competent sources from both Ankara, Athens, and Nicosia respond positively, even if each side has its own reading of what the developments may mean and who they are likely to favor most in the end.

After all, Turkey appears determined for a dynamic entry into energy planning, with the key point being the normalization of its relations with Israel, which may end the so-called “isolation” of Ankara and mean a change of balances.

Turkish sources see developments in the energy sector as a possible catalyst in the Cyprus issue, recalling Ankara’s clear position that no project in the Eastern Mediterranean can proceed without Turkey’s involvement.

Turkish diplomatic sources do not recall that for Ankara the EastMed plan was never realistic, describing it as a political tool to have a Greece-Cyprus-Israel approach that would exclude Turkey. In fact, Turkish diplomats have repeatedly argued that the “Oruc Reis” research vessel aimed to respond to the attempt to exclude its neighbor from the plans in the Eastern Mediterranean.

In the current situation that requires immediate and quick solutions, Ankara appears ready to seize the opportunity.

According to competent Turkish sources, Nicosia will have to decide whether it wants to be part of the plans. They also consider from the Turkish interpretation of the situation that a cooperation in the field of hydrocarbons could strengthen confidence and “unlock” steps for solution to the Cyprus issue on the basis of Ankara’s permanent positions, but which are not an option for the Republic of Cyprus. The question is on what basis the pressure on Nicosia will be exerted and to what extent.

The route of the pipelines

A pipeline from Israel to Turkey that will pass through areas under the control of the Republic of Cyprus and the pseudo-state is a scenario, while some sources claim that Israel and Turkey have even discussed the possibility of a pipeline that will reach Turkey via the Occupied Territories without the involvement of the official Republic of Cyprus.

For its part, however, Israel assures Nicosia and Athens that it remains committed to the tripartite and will inform about relevant steps in its relations with Ankara. Competent sources of the neighbor, however, do not seem to consider the construction of pipelines in the Eastern Mediterranean as the only solution, giving great emphasis to the port of Mersin.

A potential LNG host node, which will then be channeled through TANAP to Europe, without excluding the involvement of Greece. A plan that best fits the American version of how developments should be launched.

At the same time, Turkish sources commenting on the announcements of Kyriakos Mitsotakis for research in the South and Southwest of Crete, refer to possible reactions from Libya.

Erdogan with Herzog

The statements of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to ambassadors serving in Turkey are indicative of the developments, in which he noted that the EU is a strategic target of Ankara.

He reiterated Turkey’s strategic importance to the EU in the fields of security and energy and called on the EU “not to give in to the sterile interests of some of its members”.

Erdogan had a telephone conversation with his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog, focusing on the events at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, as well as bilateral relations, according to a tweet from the Turkish president, who is seeking a rapprochement between the two sides on energy issues.