UBS ‘Bullish’ on Greek Economy for 2024-2026

Swiss-based multinational investment bank UBS is “bullish” on the Greek economy, expecting it will have a robust performance in 2024-2026 based on the country’s fundamentals.

In its analysis, UBS affirms the country’s recovery, pointing to economic growth rates outpacing those of the EU average while also highlighting a steady fall in inflationary pressures.

A combination of inflation easing off, the momentum in GDP expansion, and prudent fiscal policies makes for a lucrative macroeconomic profile for investors, UBS notes.

Despite these positive elements, UBS cautions of external factors that are likely to counter the overall positive outlook, underlining the need for boosting productivity and competitiveness.

Greece is expected to stand out within the Eurozone, with UBS projecting GDP growth of 2.3% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. These figures far exceed the Eurozone average, which is anticipated to reach only 0.8% in 2024, 0.7% in 2025, and 1.0% in 2026.

Even the stronger European economies are forecast to lag behind the Greek economy. Germany, for example, is expected to see negative growth of -0.2% this year and reach just 1.2% by 2026. France and Italy are also projected to perform modestly, with growth of 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, in 2024.

Inflation in Greece is forecast to decline steadily, from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.0% in both 2025 and 2026—aligning closely with the European Central Bank’s target for price stability.

Greece’s fiscal deficit remains relatively contained compared to other countries, standing at -1.3% of GDP in 2024, -1.6% in 2025, and -1.8% in 2026. These figures are well below the Eurozone average, which is projected to hover around -3% over the same period.