Turkey’s Stance Risks Undermining EU Plan to Ban Russian Gas

Turkey has refused to back the European Union’s plan to eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027, raising fears in Brussels that Moscow’s fuel could continue flowing into the bloc through backdoor routes, according to Politico.

For decades, Turkey has been a key transit hub for Russian energy to Europe. The EU’s new proposal seeks to impose strict monitoring requirements on companies importing gas, aiming to identify and block Russian supplies. However, Ankara has stated it will only implement sanctions approved by the United Nations Security Council, arguing that unilateral measures risk harming economies and energy security.

This position could create a significant loophole. Experts warn that gas entering the EU via Turkey — particularly through the Strandzha-Malkoclar point on the Bulgaria-Turkey border and the smaller Kipi interconnector with Greece — may be mixed with Russian supplies before delivery. In 2024, the EU imported 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas via these routes, with potential capacity to reach 5.4 bcm, around one-fifth of last year’s total pipeline imports from Russia.

Under a 2023 deal, Bulgaria’s state-owned Bulgargaz can send LNG cargoes to Turkish terminals operated by Botaş, then receive them back at the EU border. But analysts say tracking the exact origin of these supplies is nearly impossible, given confidential contracts and complex routing.

Politico says EU officials fear that, without Turkish cooperation, monitoring provisions in the legislation could be ineffective. While Ankara insists it maintains a firm stance against sanction evasion and publishes import data, skeptics point to suspicions that Turkish customs records for Russian oil have been manipulated in the past.

With EU–Turkey relations at a low point, energy experts say Brussels may need to offer incentives — such as reviving frozen energy talks linked to Ankara’s EU membership bid or unlocking European Investment Bank funds for green projects — to secure cooperation.

As the EU pushes to cut a major Kremlin revenue stream, Turkey’s position threatens to turn the bloc’s gas phase-out into a high-stakes game of cat and mouse.

Source: Tovima.com