Draft Budget Submitted in Greek Parliament Projects 2.4% Growth

The draft budget submitted to the Greek Parliament projects an economic growth rate of 2.4% and a primary surplus of 2.8% in 2026.

The new budget is based on an estimated average Brent oil price of $64 per barrel, lower than this year’s $67.7. If confirmed, this would provide relief for both public finances and energy costs for businesses and households.

Key projections

According to the draft budget, GDP growth is expected to reach 2.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.

By comparison, the European Commission’s spring forecasts project growth in the eurozone at 0.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, while the European Central Bank’s latest forecasts (September 2025) expect 1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026.

Nominal GDP is projected to rise from €249.6 billion in 2025 to €260.9 billion in 2026, while domestic inflation is expected to ease from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026.

Investment growth

The investment growth rate is forecast to increase from 4.5% in 2024 to 5.7% in 2025 and further to 10.2% in 2026. This reflects both strong private investment momentum and an expanded public investment program of €16.7 billion in 2026, up from €14.6 billion in 2025.

This rise in investment represents the second-highest increase in the eurozone for 2025 and the highest in both the eurozone and the EU-27 for 2026, helping to further close the country’s output gap.

For comparison, the average investment growth in the eurozone is estimated at 1.3% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, according to the European Commission’s spring forecasts.