Fitch Ratings outlines both the strengths and weaknesses of Greece’s economy in its new analysis for Europe, ahead of its next credit rating review.
According to the agency, Greece’s current credit rating reflects its relatively high GDP per capita and governance indicators, which are above the median ‘BBB’ level, as well as its policy credibility, supported by the European Union and the eurozone.
Despite this positive assessment, the agency says the legacy of the debt crisis, along with other problems, offsets these advantages.
These include high levels of public and external debt, elevated unemployment, moderate growth potential, and persistent weaknesses in the banking sector.
The “Positive Outlook” reflects improving fiscal performance, particularly strong primary surpluses and a rapid reduction in public debt.
Greece achieved a fiscal surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2024, a significant improvement compared to the 1.4% deficit in 2023. The 2025 budget remains robust, with a cash flow surplus of €1.7 billion.
The fiscal balance also compares favorably with the ‘BBB’ median of a 3.7% deficit. Fitch projects primary surpluses above 2.5% of GDP for the 2025–2027 period.
Sharp Debt Reduction
Greece has recorded the largest post-pandemic debt reduction among Fitch-rated countries. Public debt is projected at 148% of GDP by mid-2025—still nearly three times the ‘BBB’ median of 52%, but 50 percentage points lower than its 2020 peak.
In summary, Greece’s improving fiscal discipline and debt trajectory are clear positives for its credit profile, the analysis notes. However, high debt levels, structural challenges in the labor market, and vulnerabilities in the banking sector remain key constraints that Fitch will assess in its upcoming rating decision.
Fitch Ratings is scheduled to publish Greece’s updated rating report on November 14, 2025.
Source: tovima.com
