Citigroup Upgrades Alpha Bank Target Price to €4.30

Citigroup has upgraded the target price of Greek bank Alpha to €4.30 from €3.90 following a minor upward adjustment of the systemic bank’s profit projections.

The global investment and financial services bank reduced its estimates for Alpha Bank’s earnings per share (EPS) by 2% for 2025 and 2026, with its fundamental projections for the bank remaining unchanged.

The downward revision of its earnings-per-share estimates reflects the inclusion of additional extraordinary contributions totaling €25 million for this year and the next, allocated to school reconstruction. These expenses are incorporated into its forecasts for operating expenses (OPEX).

In addition, the bank slightly lowered its projections for net interest income for this year, though this is offset by higher expected income from trading and other sources.

Citi’s profitability forecasts for the coming years remain unchanged. Continued progress in capital strengthening and the reduction of non-performing exposures (NPEs) has led to a 50-basis-point decrease in the estimated cost of equity, to 11.5%, resulting in an upward revision of the target price to €4.20 from the previous €3.90. Citigroup maintains its “Buy” rating on the stock.

In its recent conference call ahead of the close of the third quarter, the management of Alpha Bank announced that net interest income is expected to exceed €400 million for the quarter, marking an increase compared with the previous quarter.

Operating expenses are estimated at around €225–226 million, in line with full-year 2025 forecasts, and credit risk is expected to remain broadly consistent with revised annual projections, at around 45 basis points.

Incorporating this information, Citi forecasts net profit for the third quarter at €221 million (excluding charitable donations for school reconstruction), and reported net profit at €193 million before the €35 million AT1 coupon payment. The underlying return on tangible equity (ROTE) is estimated at 9.8% for the quarter.

Source: tovima.com