The Bank of Greece predicts a 6% increase in GDP for this year, while the growth rate is expected to decline in 2023 to 2.8%, as stated by the 2 speaking on Monday morning at the Economist conference.
As Mr. Stournaras explained, the better performance of the Greek economy compared to that of the European Union, is mainly due to the increased receipts from tourism as well as the inflows from the RRF as well as the phenomenon of “suppressed demand”.
Eurozone closer to the unfavorable scenario
However, as he warned, the developments do not allow for complacency, even though on the GDP front the image of the Public Debt is improving significantly, as its percentage is decreasing. But the combination of rising interest rates and rising energy prices will likely drive the eurozone economy in 2023 closer to the adverse scenario than the so-called base scenario. In any case, however, the Greek economy is estimated to remain in a better position thanks to the increased inflows from the RRF, but also to the lower energy dependence.
Nevertheless, in these conditions, as Mr. Stournaras said, the goal of Greece obtaining investment grade becomes even more imperative.
The combination of the increase in interest rates and the deterioration of the quality of assets (loans) causes particular risks to the balance sheets of banks. He acknowledged, however, that banks are benefiting from rising interest rates.
The BoG governor argued that the ECB should continue to normalize monetary policy gradually and flexibly, until interest rates return to the so-called neutral level or even higher.
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