UBS: Surprise explosive 4.1% growth for Greece in 2023

Swiss bank UBS expects surprise explosive growth, at 4.1%, for the Greek economy in 2023, partly as a result of the large statistical base effect (carry-over effect) of the growth rate of 2022, which is estimated at 1, 5%, while the average estimate of economists of international organizations (Consensus) has also increased to a strong 2.9%.

The Greek economy, which closed 2022 with a growth rate of 5.9%, is expected to record a strong GDP growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 as well, against an average forecast of just 1.9% by the Consensus of economists.

Inflation is at 3.3%

For UBS, lower energy prices and thus lower subsidies are expected to reverse the large gap that opened between gross value added and GDP in the third quarter of 2022, favoring growth, while falling prices for fuel, electricity and natural gas, will also limit average inflation to 3.3%, or 0.8% below the average market estimate.

Greece, according to the Swiss bank, is recording the largest fiscal adjustment in Europe, now returning to primary surpluses, with public debt falling to 159% of GDP in 2023 and 151% of GDP in 2024. At the same time, while 7.2 billion euros of foreign direct investment in 2022, a 20-year record, unemployment is expected to fall to 11.1% in 2023 and 10% in 2024