In rationalizing its forecast for growth in Greece, from the explosive 4.1% to 2.5%, UBS proceeded for 2023, leaving the estimate for 2024 unchanged at 3.2%. The Swiss bank estimates that this year’s GDP will reach 228 billion. euros ($239 billion) and at 241 billion euros ($271 billion) in 2024, with GDP per capita estimated at $22,617 and $25,559 respectively.
According to its forecasts, inflation at medium levels will fluctuate at 3.8% this year and 2.2% in 2024, while the current account deficit will slow to -5.3% of GDP and -4, 2% of GDP respectively.
AXIA on elections: Investor confidence boosts – Investment grade earlier
It also expects a reduction in the fiscal deficit (as a % of GDP) to -2% this year and to -1% in 2024, with the primary surplus at 0.8% of GDP and 1.6% of GDP respectively. Public debt is also estimated to continue to decline to 159% of GDP this year and 151.5% of GDP in 2024. Finally, in line with the course of Greece’s borrowing costs, it expects yields on the Greek benchmark 10-year bonds to decline to 3.5% at the end of 2023 and to 2.2% at the end of 2024. The Greek economy nevertheless shrank marginally by -0.1% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter of 2023 mainly reflecting the reversal of the positive effect from inventories of businesses. Households, however, continue to benefit from inflation falling further to 2.8% a year in May and unemployment falling to its lowest level since 2009.
However, the assessment of international analysts is common that the economic activity in Greece is expected to accelerate in the second semester, due to tourism revenues, lower energy costs and the faster disbursement of the Recovery Fund funds, with the overall growth for some officials with knowledge of data to move close to the region of 3%, surpassing the official forecasts, while the statistical base effect (carry-over effect) of the growth rate of 2022, which is estimated at 1.5%, is allowed to support this year’s growth rate as well GDP
For 2023, however, the Stability Program predicts growth of 2.3%, the European Commission 2.4%, the OECD 2.2%, the IMF 2.6%, while according to the latest estimates of international banks, Morgan Stanley expects for this year’s GDP growth of 2.5%, JP Morgan 2.4%, Deutsche Bank 2.4% also, ING 1.9% and Bank of America 1.7%.
Latest News
EIB Appoints Greece’s Ioannis Tsakiris as New VP
Ioannis Tsakiris started the new role May 1 after spending 15 years at the European Investment Fund (EIF) and serving as Greece’s Deputy Minister for Development and Investments
Two Greek Beaches in Top 50 in the World
Both Greek beaches were on the list of the best beaches in Europe too
Eurostat: Greece 20th out of 26 European States in Hourly Average Wage
According to figures released by Eurostat, the Benelux Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, one of Europe’s hubs for finance, is in first place
Greek Property Renovation Surge amid Economic Constraints
This has led to a notable escalation in renovation costs, with average prices per square meter exceeding previous norms and reaching even 1,000 euros in premium locations
RRF: Additional €5.1bln Funds for Subsidies to Greece in 2025
By April 22, funds totaling 5.75 billion euros had been transferred for approved projects of the Recovery Fund to entities within and outside the general government and final recipients
OECD: Greek Economy Resilient with 2% Growth Forecast for 2024
However, the OECD highlights challenges including the need to enhance productivity and fiscal adjustment due to high debt levels.
Challenges and Delays in Greece’s Hydrocarbon Exploration
Sources disclose that the petroleum companies holding the concessions are seeking partners to jointly invest and share the costs of exploration and drilling.
Greek Beach Visitors Can Report Violations on New ‘MyCoast’ App
Greek authorities hope the newly-launched, free ‘MyCoast’ app will help clamp down on public beach violations
BoG Figures Confirm Banner Year for Greek Tourism in 2023
20.6 billion euros in related revenues topped the previous year’s figure by 16.5%
Piraeus Bank to Propose First Dividend in 16 Years
Piraeus Bank has forecast profits of roughly 900 million euros this year, rising to one billion euros next year