The Bank of Greece warned of a possible upward revision to its 2025 inflation forecast in its regular Note on the Greek Economy.
According to the report, inflation based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is expected to continue slowing during the projection period.
For 2025, inflation is forecast at 2.5%, remaining elevated due to persistent price pressures in services. These are driven mainly by expected increases in wages and rents, strong tourism demand, and indirect taxes. The central bank noted that data released after its June assessment suggest the outlook for 2025 inflation may be revised upward.
In 2026, the figure is projected to ease to 2.1% before accelerating again to 2.4% in 2027.
Growth outlook
The growth momentum of the Greek economy seen in recent years is expected to continue in 2025–2027, despite global uncertainty. GDP growth is forecast at 2.3% in 2025, easing to 2.0% in 2026 and edging up to 2.1% in 2027. These rates remain above the euro area average.
Private consumption is projected to be the main growth driver, with investment and exports also contributing positively. Household consumption is expected to expand at an average pace of 2.0% over the forecast horizon, supported by rising real disposable income as employment continues to recover, wages increase, and inflation gradually declines.
Total investment is expected to grow at a strong pace in 2025–2026, averaging 7.5%. Public investment is projected to record a negative growth rate in 2027, while residential investment is expected to continue expanding at a solid pace.
Source: tovima.com
