The European Commission’s Autumn 2025 economic forecast estimates that the Greek economy is expected to expand at a strong rate of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026.
Strong consumer spending and investments, supported by EU funds, are driving the GDP growth, the forecast underlines.
Economic growth is estimated to abate in 2027, reaching 1.7%, as the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility comes to an end.
Inflation is expected to slow gradually to 2.4 percent by 2027, even as strong demand and projected increases in energy prices continue to push consumer costs higher.
Unemployment has fallen to levels not seen in more than a decade, though structural challenges persist. Greece’s fiscal outlook for 2025–27 remains favorable, with generally stable primary surpluses despite tax cuts and new social measures.
In the first half of 2025, the Greek economy grew 2 percent year-on-year, driven mainly by private consumption and tourism. Investment picked up in the second quarter, particularly in construction and equipment.
Strong demand and a still-tight labor market are likely to maintain upward pressure on consumer prices.
While a sharp downturn is not anticipated, growth is projected to slow after 2026 as implementation of the RRP nears completion. GDP is forecast to rise 2.1 percent in 2025 and 2.2 percent in 2026, before easing to 1.7 percent in 2027.
The labor market continues to improve, but challenges remain. Unemployment fell to 8.2 percent in October 2025, its lowest level since 2009, but still above the EU average. Job vacancy rates have edged down since peaking in the second quarter of 2024, yet they continue to point to a relatively tight labor market, particularly in tourism and construction.
Employment is expected to keep rising, though more slowly, as structural issues—such as skills mismatches and low participation rates, especially among women—limit further gains. Wages per employee are projected to accelerate, averaging 3.6 percent annual growth over the forecast period, partly due to earlier minimum wage increases, lower social security contributions, and the recently announced personal income tax reform.
The autumn forecasts project real GDP in the European Union to grow 1.4 percent in both 2025 and 2026, edging up to 1.5 percent in 2027. The euro area is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with real GDP forecast to expand 1.3 percent in 2025, 1.2 percent in 2026, and 1.4 percent in 2027.
Source: tovima.com
