Morgan Stanley appears enigmatic… even sibyllic as concerns Greek banks, as although it confirms its positive attitude, especially for Piraeus and National Banks, it also gives estimates for lower prices, under an unfavorable scenario.
Of course, as it is quick to point out, Greek banks offer the best exposure to risk, since they have now made significant progress in clearing their balance sheets, reducing non-performing exposures (NPEs) to single-digit levels, while their coverage levels are also high.
High in Morgan Stanley’s preference is the share of Piraeus with a target price of 4.40 euros, but also National Bank with a target price of 8.33 euros, and a recommendation for returns better than those of the market (overweight). For Alpha Bank it stands neutral, with an equal weight recommendation, with a target price of 2.11 euros and for Eurobank with a target price of 2.10 euros.
Adverse and ideal scenarios
Although the above target prices imply a significant estimated return of 40% to 55%, Morgan Stanley does not fail to provide price estimates in both an adverse and an ideal scenario.
For Piraeus, the positive scenario suggests a target price of 5.32 euros, but in the negative the target price is 1.77 euros. Accordingly, for the National Bank the two prices are 9.52 euros and 4.33 euros, for Alpha Bank they are 2.37 euros and 0.85 euros and for Eurobank at 2.39 euros and 1 euro.
The positive scenario indicates a stronger recovery of the Greek economy with an increase in credit expansion and a decrease in NPEs. Also financing costs are lower and the RoTE efficiency ratio is 12.5% based on 2025 estimates.
On the other hand, the negative scenario includes a lower than expected absorption of EU funds, anemic growth, credit contraction and higher NPEs. RoTE will be just 5.9% in 2025.
Latest News
Which Islands Will Have Italians Flocking to Greece this Summer?
Well-known Italian travel magazine details reasons why Skopelos, Naxos and Astypalaia are the go-to summer destinations for Italians
Antentokounmpo 5th Highest Paid Athlete in World
The basketball player rakes in 111 million dollars per year, between his salary at the Bucks and endorsements from big brands like Amazon, Nike and Pepsi
Greek FM Gerapetritis: Need to Immediately End Gaza Hostilities
Gerapetritis added that a humanitarian crisis was transpiring in Gaza, with the concerns now being spillover in the wider Middle East.
ETC Report: Greece 3rd Most Popular Destination for Europeans
Italy and Spain are tied as the top destinations, each attracting 8% of travelers
Greece Battles EC to Protect Rice Industry and Public Health
Together with several other EU countries, Greece successfully blocked the European Commission's proposal to increase allowable levels of a banned pesticide commonly found in rice imported from southeast Asia
Eurostat: 3.2% Annual Inflation in Greece in April
The data shows that Greece ranks seventh in overall inflation within the eurozone and second in food inflation
Intrum’s 2024 Report Unveils Greek Businesses Embrace Digitalization for Growth
Looking ahead, over 40% of businesses prioritize development for 2024, with 65% recognizing the potential of digital business models as sustainable investments
IOBE: Mild Drop in April Business Confidence Index (BCI) in Greece
The positive balance of expectations for employment witnessed a marginal decline, while the index for production forecasts also recorded a mild drop
Greek PM Mitsotakis Calls on EU to Intervene Over Multinationals’ Pricing Policy
Speaking about price fairness, the Prime Minister emphasized, "Europe should also mean similar or uniform prices for the products sold by our multinational corporations.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 4% Decrease in EU, 0.3% Rise in Greece in Q4 2023
The EU's GDP remained stable with a marginal 0.2% increase in fourth quarter of 2023