Higher than the average estimate of foreign analysts, UBS places Greece’s growth, since it estimates that Greek GDP will grow by 3% in both 2024 and 2025. Inflation in Greece will also be very close to the European Central Bank’s target, with UBS estimates that it will be 2.5% next year, and 2% in 2025.
Cumulatively, Greece’s growth will be slightly higher than the growth achieved by the global economy, with UBS attributing this estimate to the weaker performance of China and the US. That is why it predicts that global growth in 2024 will be ½ percentage point weaker than in 2023.
As it commented, monetary tightening has driven the global credit push to its weakest level since the Great Depression of 2007/2008 (GFC), profit margins are under pressure and the labor market is showing signs of cracking. Its forecast would have been 1 percentage point below the long-term growth average, but potential growth is believed to have slipped lower and is now likely closer to 3%.
Markets are pricing in unusually little easing
According to UBS, on average, G10 central banks are expected to cut by 80 bp. over the next three years its interest rates, which means they will not return to neutral ground, nor will they of course be accommodative. Over the past 30 years, however, G10 central banks (excluding the BoJ) have cut interest rates by an average of 320bps. over a period of 15 months.
A wide gap between interest rates and growth
Real interest rates are now reaching levels traded in 2010 and 2005-06. At the time, the global economy was growing at a rate of 5-6%, more than double the growth rate expected in 2024.
As inflation eases toward 2%, central banks will find that policy rates are too high in real terms and are expected to cut rates at a faster pace than is priced in futures, particularly in the US, the estimate said. of UBS.
Latest News
Which Islands Will Have Italians Flocking to Greece this Summer?
Well-known Italian travel magazine details reasons why Skopelos, Naxos and Astypalaia are the go-to summer destinations for Italians
Antentokounmpo 5th Highest Paid Athlete in World
The basketball player rakes in 111 million dollars per year, between his salary at the Bucks and endorsements from big brands like Amazon, Nike and Pepsi
Greek FM Gerapetritis: Need to Immediately End Gaza Hostilities
Gerapetritis added that a humanitarian crisis was transpiring in Gaza, with the concerns now being spillover in the wider Middle East.
ETC Report: Greece 3rd Most Popular Destination for Europeans
Italy and Spain are tied as the top destinations, each attracting 8% of travelers
Greece Battles EC to Protect Rice Industry and Public Health
Together with several other EU countries, Greece successfully blocked the European Commission's proposal to increase allowable levels of a banned pesticide commonly found in rice imported from southeast Asia
Eurostat: 3.2% Annual Inflation in Greece in April
The data shows that Greece ranks seventh in overall inflation within the eurozone and second in food inflation
Intrum’s 2024 Report Unveils Greek Businesses Embrace Digitalization for Growth
Looking ahead, over 40% of businesses prioritize development for 2024, with 65% recognizing the potential of digital business models as sustainable investments
IOBE: Mild Drop in April Business Confidence Index (BCI) in Greece
The positive balance of expectations for employment witnessed a marginal decline, while the index for production forecasts also recorded a mild drop
Greek PM Mitsotakis Calls on EU to Intervene Over Multinationals’ Pricing Policy
Speaking about price fairness, the Prime Minister emphasized, "Europe should also mean similar or uniform prices for the products sold by our multinational corporations.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 4% Decrease in EU, 0.3% Rise in Greece in Q4 2023
The EU's GDP remained stable with a marginal 0.2% increase in fourth quarter of 2023