In the coming months, the current increases in energy prices are expected to negatively affect the trade balance, as household and business decisions on the quantities they will consume will not be directly adjusted to the new price levels (in addition, state aid is expected). Eurobank states the above in its report “Economy 7 days”.
At the same time, the bank’s analysts report that in the medium term, the estimated increase in investment through the Recovery and Resilience Fund, an essential parameter for expanding the productive potential of the Greek economy, will be reflected in an increase in imports.
Through them, social welfare can be increased and made more sustainable in the future.
Investments in extroverted sectors, together with the recovery of the surplus of services due to the increase in tourism revenues, are estimated to keep the deficit of the overall external balance at relatively tolerable levels.
According to the IMF forecast (World Economic Outlook, October 2021), the current account deficit in Greece, based on the IMF calculation method that differs to some extent from that of the Bank of Greece, is expected to reach 7.4 % of GDP in 2021 (7.4% in 2020, 6.7% according to the BoG in its report in June 2021) and then gradually de-escalate to 5.1%, 4.9%, 4.4, 3 , 9% and 3.4% in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively.
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