Opinion poll on Mega: Gap between ND, SYRIZA at 4.7% points; one in five respondents undecided, unwilling to vote

The latest opinion poll presented on a prime-time newscast in Greece – and first after a general election was declared for May 21 – shows ruling New Democracy (ND) party fielding a 4.7-percentage-point lead over main opposition SYRIZA party.

Results of the poll, conducted by the Metron Analysis firm between March 22 and 28, were presented on the main newscast of Athens-based Mega Channel on Thursday evening.

Findings were particularly significant, in light of the upcoming election and a month after a shocking train collision in north-central Greece claimed the lives of 57 people. The latter tarnished the government’s image and caused an outcry in the country.

Although center-right ND remains in first place, it garnered the lowest percentage of respondents’ preference in two years, only reaching 26.6 percent, down by a marginal 0.1 percentage point from the last opinion poll by the same firm in early March.

Leftist SYRIZA picks up 21.5 percent, up by one percentage point from the last such poll by the same firm.

Tallied together, both ND and SYRIZA fail to exceed 50 percent.

The socialist PASOK party remains firmly in third place, but below 10 percent of respondents’ preference (9.4 percent), a threshold set by its party leader for participating in any coalition government.

All three of the lesser parties now represented in Parliament – the Communist Party (KKE), the right-wing and euro-skeptic Elliniki Lysi and Yanis Varoufakis’ radical left Mera25 – are also shown as exceeding 3 percent, the figure needed as a percentage of valid votes in a general election to return to the legislature.

In an ominous development, a party established by jailed former Golden Dawn lieutenant Ilias Kasidiaris is given 3.8 percent in the poll, up from 3.6 percent in the previous result.

If that showing pans out in a general election, Kasidiaris’ extreme-right formation would enter Parliament with 15 MPs, himself among them. Greece’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the party, as a new law prevents felons from serving as party leaders.

In other results, the undecided vote is calculated at 11.6 percent. If the blank/invalid vote (3.9 percent) and respondents who said they will not vote (4 percent) is added, then the “grey zone” tallies 19.5 percent, i.e. one in five respondents.

In the all-important extrapolation of the vote figure, ND is calculated at 32.5 percent; 26.7 percent for SYRIZA; 11.7 percent for PASOK and 7.1 percent for KKE.
Based on those results, ND is left with 105 seats in Greece’s 300-deputy Parliament, far below the 150+1 necessary to form a government. Similarly, SYRIZA is given 86 seats; 38 for PASOK; 23 for KKE; 17 for Elliniki Lysi; 16 for Mera25 and 15 for Kasidiaris’ party.

Beyond the question mark of whether Kasidiaris’ party will be allow on ballots, the results and corresponding representation in Parliament show that only the first two parties – which are ideological rivals – can form a coalition government, something considered as very unlikely.

By political analysts in the country, party leaderships, including incumbent PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, have cited a second election in the summer, when a revised electoral law will be effect, giving the first-past-the-post party a greater number of MPs.

Along those lines, ND was picked by 65 percent of respondents on the question of who they believe will win the election, or elections, regardless of their personal preference.