JP Morgan ‘Bullish’ on Greek Banks

JP Morgan has raised its target prices for Greek banks, despite revising its forecast for the European Central Bank’s key interest rate downward, now expecting it to reach 1.5% by the end of 2025.

Alpha Bank: JP Morgan included higher loan volumes in its revised estimates, reflecting the bank’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2024. Despite lowering its assumption for the ECB’s main rate to 1.5% by end-2025, the bank made modest valuation adjustments to Alpha’s balance sheet and earnings. JP Morgan increased its annual share repurchase estimate for 2025 and 2026 to €200 million.

Eurobank: The upgraded projections also include higher loan volumes due to better-than-expected 2024 results, along with valuation adjustments. These changes result in a +4%, +1%, and +3% increase in EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Despite a lower interest rate environment, JP Morgan believes Eurobank can maintain a normalized return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 15% in 2027. The target price remains unchanged at €3.20.

National Bank of Greece: The bank saw adjustments to its balance sheet and earnings lines, incorporating new forward guidance for the 2025–2027 period and factoring in higher loan volumes. JP Morgan maintains that the bank can sustain a normalized return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 15% in 2027, or 14% on a reported basis. As a result, its price target was raised to €11.30 from €9.80.

Piraeus Bank: JP Morgan had already accounted for higher loan volumes since February, reflecting the bank’s strong 2024 performance. It now assumes the ECB’s deposit facility rate will settle at 1.5% by the end of 2025, down from a previous forecast of 1.75%.

JP Morgan also made a slight upward revision to its profitability estimates for the Greek banks, taking into account the most recent industry data as well as valuation adjustments following the announcement of full-year 2024 results.