DW: Turkey is on a collision course with Greece also in 2023

Turkey’s spokesman Ömer Çelik made his mark by accusing Greece’s foreign minister and the prime minister, that throughout 2022 they had sabotaged the positive approach shown by Turkey.

From the spring of 2022, Turkish foreign policy, along with the rhetoric of questioning the sovereignty of the islands of the eastern Aegean, took a turn. Flagging their militarization, he began to accuse Greece of an expansive, intransigent and provocative attitude. In a few words, it adopted the reverse of issues, for which it was accused by Greece, due to the questioning of airspace, overflights and the casus belli in case of exercising the right to extend to 12 miles in the Aegean.

The language hardened from officials as well. The president of Turkey has gone so far as to say that he is capable of hitting even Athens with the Turkish-made Typhoon missile. And “one night, suddenly”, now became routine.

Just for pre-election purposes?

Most people may be talking about a pre-election confrontation aimed at the nationalist majority. But things are not that simple. Despite the recent attempt to restore the Ankara-Athens communication channels in Brussels with the mediation of Berlin, it is considered a given that until the elections in Turkey and Greece the situation will revert to the same patterns. It is not at all certain that after the election, things will change for the better.

First, because regardless of the election result, history has shown that what Ankara has added to the table so far has not been withdrawn, no matter how absurd it may seem for Greece and the international community. Secondly, the image of a hostile Greece has been cultivated in the new generations of Turkey. Even a strong popular leader like Erdogan will need a lot of effort and a lot of arguments to reverse the damage that has been done. Third, the Turkish diplomatic establishment and the state apparatus for the first time in recent decades have fully unfolded the wishful thinking and what was being said behind closed doors, not just in public through retirees and analysts. But he formulated them as official policy.

Internationalization of pending cases

Seeing now that this, after the successful internationalization of the issues by Greece, is starting to have unbearable costs and lead to pressure from the international community and especially the USA, Ankara is turning to a compensatory policy. It attempts to internationalize positions that accuse Greece of expansionism and maximalist tendencies and actions. Consequently, after two difficult years in Greece-Turkey relations, in the new year a possible improvement does not seem like an easy task.

Even after the upcoming elections in both countries, it will take special effort, will and stability for both to take bold steps, which could pave the way for de-escalation and resolution of differences, which have been stagnating since the last century.