DZ Bank: 0.7% recession in Greece in 2023

After explosive growth of 6.9% in 2022, DZ Bank expects a recession of 0.7% for the Greek economy in 2023, as a consequence of the contraction of the eurozone GDP. For the German bank, Athens has already achieved major goals this year, such as full repayment of IMF loans, an upgrade to BB+ by S&P, the successful completion of enhanced supervision and the start of repayment of bilateral bailout loans from 2010 with the next milestone to be about the recovery of the investment grade. As the lowest-rated issuer in the eurozone, Greece is suffering more from general risk aversion in the market, with Greek bond spreads expected to widen further in the coming months, with the 10-year from current levels of 270 basis points moving towards the 300 basis points by the end of the year.

Overall, however, economists note that for 2023, it is difficult to make real estimates, as the depth of the recession in the Eurozone, as well as the developments on the fronts of the energy crisis and the war, have several variables that cannot be estimated.

It is indicative that the government speaks of a GDP growth rate of 2.1%, the Bank of Greece for 2.8%, recently Unicredit for 0.7%, while Fitch (-0.2%), ING (-0 .2%) and DZ Bank (-0.7%) predicted a recession in recent days. The range of forecasts of international banks starts from recession (-1.2%) and reaches strong growth (+4%).