Is the abrupt fall of Omicron approaching?

At least one more uphill 10-day period is predicted by the prognostic models for the epidemiological course of our country. However, by collecting data from countries where Omicron has completed its sweeping course, scientists hope that the rule of the abrupt fall that characterizes the new mutation will apply in our country as well. The case of South Africa is indicative, with the epidemiological curve of Omicron differing significantly from that of the Delta, forming a sharp inverted “V” that indicates the acute but brief passage.

Thus, based on the above, the predictions show that the predominant scenario is that the peak and de-escalation of Omicron will occur within January, a fact that, if verified, will go down in history, as it will be the shortest pandemic wave.

Cases-intubation

This, however, does not mean, according to experts, that it will be less severe for the NHS, as the same models show that by the end of this month the number of intubated patients may rise to or even exceed 800. In more detail and according to Nikos Tzanakis, professor of Pulmonology at the Medical School of the University of Crete, the good scenario wants the peak of the fifth wave from January 18 to 22, with the average number of cases reaching 50,000 per day.

The bad scenario, as he analyzes in “NEA” newspaper, is for the curve to reach a plateau from 22 to 25 January. And although the two scenarios are a few calendar days apart, the time that separates them works as the “fuel” that will increase the average daily cases to 55,000 to 60,000. Nevertheless, there are still several asterisks. “In order to have a clearer picture, any effects from the celebration of the New Year and the Epiphany must first be incorporated,” the professor explains.

Reopening of schools

Respectively, another unbalanced factor that blurs the landscape is the reopening of schools. It is indicative that the participation of minors in spreading the disease during the holidays (when the schools were closed) was reduced to 13% from 25% (when there was student activity) resulting in fears of a resurgence.

Meanwhile, another point that seems to concern epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists is the fact that Omicron has not displaced the Delta variant, which may be clearly less contagious, but is responsible for a more serious illness. More specifically, it is estimated that to date 10% -15% of daily cases are due to the Indian strain, which translates into 3,000-5,000 infections per 24 hours. The result is that pressure on the NHS is maintained, at a time when scientists are evaluating the impact of Omicron on the health system every day that passes.