Marko Mrsnik, Senior Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings, expressed his view that there is one in three chances for a possible upgrade of Greece in the next 12-18 months, speaking at the Delphi Economic Forum, which is under the auspices of the President of the Republic, Mrs. Katerina Sakellaropoulou.
“If GDP growth is greater than expected and there is a simultaneous reduction in red loans, this upgrade becomes more likely. “Of course there is a two-tier gap and so I can not speculate on the time of possible upgrade,” said Mr. Mrsnik.
It all depends on whether the effort for economic reforms continues unabated, whether the debt-to-GDP ratio is reduced, and whether a more favorable debt profile is achieved. If foreign and government debt is reduced, new conditions are created.
According to Mrsniknik, we should focus on further promoting structural change. The benefits that Greece will receive from the money that will be given for recovery will be great, as it will receive a large percentage of its GDP in financing.
Mr Mrsnik said S&P had carried out a simulation that predicted GDP growth of between 8-18% over the next six years. The rating agency believes that the prospects for positive results from the money that Greece will receive can be multiplied if the structural changes proceed faster.
The pandemic crisis has, of course, exacerbated all the other problems, so it is crucial that the recovery takes place as soon as possible, which in turn requires a rapid absorption of the funds provided.
Mr. Mrsnik estimates that Greece, now having the highest rate of absorption of European funds from all other countries, also favors the absorption of these recovery funds. He believes that another factor that advocates this is the rapid improvement in the digitization of the state mechanism.
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