Inflation at 11.3% in May

Inflation in Greece jumped to 11.3% in May, according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority-ELSTAT.

In particular, the comparison of the General CPI of May 2022 with the corresponding Index of May 2021 resulted in an increase of 11.3% compared to an increase of 0.1% recorded during the corresponding comparison of 2021 with 2020.

Regarding price increases, according to the data, natural gas increased by 172.7%, heating oil by 65.1%.

Electricity bills were 80% higher and fuels and lubricants 36.6% higher.

The increase in food is also large, as there was an increase of 14.1% in dairy products, 13.4% in bread and cereals, 13.8% in meat and 23.2% in oils.

There was also an increase of 22.8% in air transport and 17.7% in ship transport.

Prices in hotels also increased by 22.2% and in cinemas and theaters by 13.9%.

The General CPI in May 2022, compared to April 2022, showed an increase of 0.7% compared to a decrease of 0.4% in the corresponding comparison of the previous year.

The average CPI of the twelve months June 2021 – May 2022, compared to the corresponding Index of the twelve months June 2020 – May 2021, showed an increase of 5.3% compared to a decrease of 1.5% in the corresponding comparison of the twelve months June 2020 – May 2021 with the twelve months June 2019 – May 2020.

Government estimates

It is noted that the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance place the annual inflation at 5.6% and expects its de-escalation from July, but the prices of fuel and commodities do not decline, thus specifying new revisions in the estimates.

The Stability Program, which was drawn up amid uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine and the ongoing energy crisis, predicts that inflation will rise to 5.6% this year, where it will peak. It forecasts an increase in the consumer price index by 1.6% in 2023, while in the years 2024 and 2025 by 1.7%.

What analysts say

In the adverse scenario, Eurobank sees growth of only 1.4% for 2022 (Interim Report on the Development of the Greek economy in 2022), with average inflation reaching 8.2%. The basic scenario of the bank predicts a growth of GDP by 3%, but also high inflation of 7%.

Also, a recent ING study sees a quarterly growth of 3% in the current second quarter and a slowdown to 2.2% in the third quarter, despite the inflation crisis. In its new report on the prospects of the world economy, it sees a recession in the second and third quarters of this year in some European economies. For Greece, it sees growth of 2.9% in 2022, to 2.4% in 2023, to 2.2% in 2024.