UBS raises Greek econ growth forecast to 4.1% for 2023; debt to drop to 151% of GDP next year

Swiss banking multinational UBS has issued a slightly more “bullish” outlook for the Greek economy, in announcing its most recent monthly global forecasts on Friday.

Specifically, UBS forecasts Greek economic growth to reach 4.1 percent this year, almost double than other ratings firms, EU authorities and even the Greek government.

Last month, the investment bank’s forecast for Greece was 4 percent for the year.

The consensus by a “bundle” to top economists for the country now cites growth of 2.9 percent for 2023.

Greek GDP growth in 2022, the first post-pandemic period, reached 5.9 percent. The consensus by economists for 2024 is 1.9 percent.

Turning to inflation, UBS forecasts a 3.3-percent increase for the ongoing year, easing to 2.2 percent in 2024, just off the ECB target of 2.0 percent.

Unemployment is also expected to ease this year to 11.1 percent; down to 10 percent in 2024.

According to the Swiss lender, Greece now boasts the biggest fiscal adjustment in Europe, returning to primary budget surpluses, and with the public debt dropping to 158.1 percent of GDP in 2023 and 151 percent of GDP in 2024.