Putin chose the Russia-China “axis” – The new Cold War is just around the corner

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has taken place. The information and estimations of the United States this time proved to be accurate and has been confirmed. The heinous sound of war is again being heard in Europe.

This time, it was Vladimir Putin and his trusted associates who tried to fool and “lul” the world. And there are those who invented the “genocide” argument (just as George W. Bush invented Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction in 2003), while until a few hours ago they were reassuring that they had no plans to attack and accused the West of fake news.

Cynicism in the Kremlin

The president of Russia acted cynically. He chose to announce the launch of a “special military operation” in Ukraine at a time when an extraordinary session of the UN Security Council is in full swing. Thus, he in turn proved that “international law” and the institutions that guaranteed it have long since become shards and fragments.

“I do not intend to wake up Lavrov right now,” was the equally cynical response given by Russia’s permanent ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, when asked to explain.

Russia vs Ukraine

Today, nothing looks like yesterday – and tomorrow, most likely, nothing will be the same as today. Putin is undoubtedly the central figure and protagonist of this crisis – only once he has decided to open Pandora’s Box, he is not certain that he will be able to control developments.

At the military level, Russia seems to have the absolute and overwhelming advantage over Ukraine. Especially since the US and NATO have long ago made it clear that they will not be directly involved in fighting, many predict a clear and quick defeat and capitulation.

This, of course, is something that remains to be proven in practice and will depend on the extent and duration of the invasion. And that means, in practice, that Russian forces may be faced with unpleasant surprises and painful losses – something that, in turn, will have repercussions at home.

The time for harsh sanctions

In economic terms, by contrast, Russia does not have the upper hand. Despite the foreign exchange reserves it has accumulated (over $ 650 billion officially), despite the steps it has already taken to “break free” from the dollar and Western markets, despite its strong alliances, it remains organically integrated into the international financial system.

Much of its oil and gas, moreover, is directed to Europe – which, in turn, “reciprocates” with valuable capital and high-tech products. And many of Russia’s oligarchs, who have direct contacts with the Kremlin, know that the “tomorrow” that awaits them is now completely uncertain.

Based on all this, the sanctions that are expected to be announced today against Russia will “hurt” it a lot. Provided, of course, that the West and especially the Europeans do not make “second thoughts” again and implement what they have announced.

Decisions in “cold blood”

There is, however, a third side, which is the most essential of all. Sooner or later, after all, the clash of arms will subside and then everyone will assess their benefits and losses, while they will try to take stock of the position they will be in after the dramatic developments.

As for Putin, it is obvious that he has made a “cold and calculated” decision: By invading Ukraine and demanding that it impose the regime Putin wants in order to become a “satellite” of Russia, he chose to say to the West: I am ready to cut any link with you, I do not care about the cost, I have other alternatives.

If that happens then it’s obvious, we are entering a period of a new Cold War, with the camps clearing up enough and the redistribution of the world (and markets) accelerating.

The day after

On the one hand, there are Russia and China, which have virtually no choice but to come closer on all levels. They will form a strategic axis, which will try to have as much power and influence as possible throughout the planet. And by all means – even by force, which is now more likely to prevail in the case of Taiwan.

On the other hand, there is the so-called West. The USA still holds the reins, but ceases being the only world superpower – a position they “enjoyed” after the end of the Cold War and up to this day. After all, the veritable abandonment of Ukraine in the clutches of the “Russian bear”, after the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, proves their new limits.

Europe, on its part, will be forced to bury plans for an autonomous role – at least for the time being – and toe Washington’s line. As for the United Kingdom, it will find a way to hide its great weaknesses and the gaps caused by its exit from the EU.

Welcome to the era of global competition and war, which will send globalization on a long vacation. It will send to the “dustbin” of history conventions and agreements and will force everyone to choose whom they leave and with whom they side.