Commission winter forecast shows solid Greek econ growth in 2022; higher than EU, Eurozone averages in 2023, 2024

The Greek economy posted a solid growth rate in the first half of 2022 and it is predicted to post the same performance for H2, while remaining in a growth orbit for 2023 and 2024, the European Commission announced on Monday with the publication of its winter economic forecast.

Based on the Commission’s forecasts, Greek GDP will surpass surpassing the EU and Eurozone average growth rates.

Specifically, the Greek economy growth is pegged at 5.5 percent in 2022; 1.2 percent in 2023 and forecast to rise to 2.2 percent in 2024, exceeding the growth forecasts of 3.5 percent, 0.9 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, for the Eurozone – and 3.5 percent, 0.8 percent and 1.6 percent averages for the EU.

The Commission’s forecasts were revised slightly downwards for 2022, compared with its previous forecasts last November 2022 (6 percent) and slightly up for 2023 and 2024, at 1 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

Although growth was solid for 2022, a rising inflation rate took its toll on growth in the second half of the year, the EU executive clarified.

At the same time, Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) provided notable support to the Greek economy and government subsidies and one-off support measures cushioned the impact of surging energy prices on businesses’ input costs and households’ real disposable incomes. Overall, real GDP growth is forecast to have reached 5.5 percent in 2022.

Falling inflation is expected to gradually ease the burden on households’ real income and benefit private consumption. The timely and effective implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) is projected to remain the main driver of investment growth, partly offsetting weakening corporate investment due to the tightening of financing conditions. With the external environment slowly improving as of the second half of 2023, exports are set to pick up the pace in 2024. Receipts from international tourism are forecast to increase in 2023 and 2024. Overall, real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.2 percent in 2023 and to pick up to 2.2 percent in 2024.