International Ratings Agencies: Greek economic activity will accelerate in the second half

In rationalizing its forecast for growth in Greece, from the explosive 4.1% to 2.5%, UBS proceeded for 2023, leaving the estimate for 2024 unchanged at 3.2%. The Swiss bank estimates that this year’s GDP will reach 228 billion. euros ($239 billion) and at 241 billion euros ($271 billion) in 2024, with GDP per capita estimated at $22,617 and $25,559 respectively.

According to its forecasts, inflation at medium levels will fluctuate at 3.8% this year and 2.2% in 2024, while the current account deficit will slow to -5.3% of GDP and -4, 2% of GDP respectively.

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It also expects a reduction in the fiscal deficit (as a % of GDP) to -2% this year and to -1% in 2024, with the primary surplus at 0.8% of GDP and 1.6% of GDP respectively. Public debt is also estimated to continue to decline to 159% of GDP this year and 151.5% of GDP in 2024. Finally, in line with the course of Greece’s borrowing costs, it expects yields on the Greek benchmark 10-year bonds to decline to 3.5% at the end of 2023 and to 2.2% at the end of 2024. The Greek economy nevertheless shrank marginally by -0.1% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter of 2023 mainly reflecting the reversal of the positive effect from inventories of businesses. Households, however, continue to benefit from inflation falling further to 2.8% a year in May and unemployment falling to its lowest level since 2009.

However, the assessment of international analysts is common that the economic activity in Greece is expected to accelerate in the second semester, due to tourism revenues, lower energy costs and the faster disbursement of the Recovery Fund funds, with the overall growth for some officials with knowledge of data to move close to the region of 3%, surpassing the official forecasts, while the statistical base effect (carry-over effect) of the growth rate of 2022, which is estimated at 1.5%, is allowed to support this year’s growth rate as well GDP

For 2023, however, the Stability Program predicts growth of 2.3%, the European Commission 2.4%, the OECD 2.2%, the IMF 2.6%, while according to the latest estimates of international banks, Morgan Stanley expects for this year’s GDP growth of 2.5%, JP Morgan 2.4%, Deutsche Bank 2.4% also, ING 1.9% and Bank of America 1.7%.